New mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that both petrol and diesel are tracking a significant over-recovery heading into July, meaning prices at the pump are expected to drop when the next adjustment takes effect on 1 July 2026.
What the CEF Numbers Show
Based on data covering the period 29 May to 16 June, the international product price of petrol and diesel has trended sharply lower. As things stand at mid-month, here are the CEF projections:
| Fuel Type | June Price (Inland) | Expected July Price | Expected Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R27.95/l | ~R26.85/l | −R1.10/l |
| Petrol 95 | R28.06/l | ~R26.99/l | −R1.07/l |
| Diesel 0.05% | R27.92/l | ~R25.60/l | −R2.32/l |
| Diesel 0.005% | R29.26/l | ~R26.65/l | −R2.61/l |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R22.47/l | ~R17.90/l | −R4.57/l |
Why Prices Are Falling
The primary driver is the ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced on 14 June 2026. The conflict had effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz since late February — a critical shipping route through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil normally passes. With the strait set to reopen, global oil supply is recovering and Brent crude has dropped to around $74–$80 per barrel, down sharply from its wartime peak above $120.
At the same time, the rand has remained relatively stable, hovering around R16.13–R16.40 to the US dollar, which helps prevent currency movements from eroding the gains.
The Catch: The Fuel Levy Is Coming Back
South African motorists won't pocket the full over-recovery, because the General Fuel Levy (GFL) is being fully reinstated in July. In April, the government cut the levy by R3 per litre as emergency relief. Half was added back in June. The remaining half — R1.50/l for petrol and R1.93–R1.96/l for diesel — returns in July.
Once the levy reinstatement is factored in, the real-world savings look like this:
| Fuel Type | Over-Recovery | Levy Added Back | Net Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | −R2.73/l | +R1.50/l | −R1.23/l |
| Petrol 95 | −R2.77/l | +R1.50/l | −R1.27/l |
| Diesel 0.05% | −R4.76/l | +R1.93/l | −R2.83/l |
| Diesel 0.005% | −R4.40/l | +R1.93/l | −R2.47/l |
What This Means for You
For the average South African filling a 50-litre tank with Petrol 95, the July adjustment represents a saving of around R53.50 per fill-up compared to June prices. Diesel drivers stand to save considerably more — roughly R115–R130 per tank depending on grade.
The Slate Levy — a separate mechanism that adjusts for cumulative under- or over-recoveries in the fuel fund — could also affect the final figures and is not included in the projections above. The official DMPR announcement on or around 30 June will confirm the final numbers. New prices take effect at midnight on 1 July.
How the Predictions Compared to Reality
The official DMPR adjustment, effective 1 July 2026, beat these mid-month projections on every grade — motorists got a bigger cut than the CEF numbers above suggested.
| Fuel Type | Predicted (16 June) | Actual (1 July) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | ~R26.85/l | R25.94/l | R0.91/l cheaper than predicted |
| Petrol 95 | ~R26.99/l | R26.10/l | R0.89/l cheaper than predicted |
| Diesel 0.05% / 500ppm | ~R25.60/l | R24.78/l | R0.82/l cheaper than predicted |
| Diesel 0.005% / 50ppm | ~R26.65/l | R25.67/l | R0.98/l cheaper than predicted |
The gap came mostly from the Slate Levy, which wasn't in the mid-month projection above — it decreased from 157.74c/l to 113.94c/l as the cumulative under-recovery balance improved, adding a bit more relief on top of the oil-price gains.
What Happened After July
The ceasefire that drove this prediction did not hold. In mid-July, the US resumed strikes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz shut again, sending Brent crude back toward $100 a barrel before it settled around $83. By the August adjustment, diesel had given back most of July's relief — up R1.38/l on 500ppm — driven by a separate problem, Russian export restrictions and Middle East refineries running below capacity. Petrol was largely protected only because the Slate Levy was cut again, from 113.94c/l to 61.38c/l.
The same pattern is shaping up again heading into September — see the September 2026 fuel price predictions for the early numbers.
Frequently asked questions
Original figures were CEF mid-month projections as at 16 June 2026. Actual and subsequent figures are official DMPR announcements, effective 1 July 2026 and 5 August 2026.
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