How the War Started — and Why Oil Prices Surged
In late February 2026, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas ordinarily flows. The move triggered an immediate and severe disruption to global energy supply, sending Brent crude from around $70 per barrel before the conflict to above $120 at peak.
In normal times, around 138 vessels cross the strait each day. During the conflict, that number dropped to a handful. The knock-on effect for South Africa was swift and severe: because crude oil is priced in US dollars, local fuel costs were hit from two sides simultaneously — rising global oil prices and a weakening rand against the dollar.
Petrol 95 began 2026 at R20.75 per litre. By June, it had climbed to a record R28.06 per litre — an increase of R7.31 per litre in just five months.
How South Africa Responded
President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed in a parliamentary Q&A that, prior to the Middle East conflict, fuel prices had been declining due to lower crude oil prices and a stronger rand. The war reversed that entirely. In response, the government took several steps:
- Delayed the planned fuel levy adjustments announced in the 2026 Budget
- Implemented General Fuel Levy (GFL) relief from April to end-June 2026, reducing petrol and diesel levies by R3 per litre in April
- In May, extended the R3/l relief on petrol and cut the diesel GFL to zero
- Confirmed agriculture sector diesel refunds: 100% of the RAF levy and 40% of the fuel levy on eligible purchases
The Deal That Changed Everything
On 14 June 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that a deal with Iran had been reached. The response in global oil markets was immediate: Brent crude fell sharply from its wartime peak above $120 per barrel to the $74–$80 range. The rand, meanwhile, strengthened toward R16.13 per US dollar, providing additional relief on the local pricing equation.
Why the Relief Won't Be Instant — or Complete
There are two reasons why South African motorists won't feel the full benefit of falling oil prices immediately.
Pipeline lag. Movements in wholesale oil markets take roughly two weeks to show up at the pump. The June fuel price adjustment was set when oil was still near its wartime peak, so it still reflected higher pre-ceasefire prices.
Levy reinstatement. The remaining half of the General Fuel Levy — R1.50/l for petrol and R1.93/l for diesel — is being added back on 1 July, partially offsetting the gains from cheaper oil.
The Full Timeline
| Period | Event | SA Petrol Price Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | Pre-war: stable conditions | R20.75/l inland — comfortable baseline |
| Late Feb 2026 | Iran closes Strait of Hormuz | Oil prices surge; rand weakens vs USD |
| April 2026 | Government cuts GFL by R3/l | Relief measure cushions impact |
| May 2026 | War continues; diesel GFL cut to zero | Prices still climbing despite relief |
| June 2026 | R1.50/l of GFL reinstated; petrol hits record | Petrol 95 peaks at R28.06/l |
| 14–15 June 2026 | US-Iran ceasefire announced | Brent crude falls to $74–$80/barrel |
| 1 July 2026 | Final R1.50/l GFL reinstated; new prices | Net reduction of R1.07–R2.61/l projected |
Sources: Central Energy Fund (CEF) mid-month projections, 16 June 2026; Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources media statement, 1 June 2026; Presidency parliamentary Q&A session, June 2026; BBC reporting on Strait of Hormuz shipping data.