Early tracking from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a fourth straight month of fuel price increases for the adjustment taking effect on 4 November 2026. But unlike previous months, the headline number itself has been unusually unstable through October — an early reading suggested one of the steepest single-month petrol increases on record, while a more recent reading cut that estimate by almost half. Both numbers come from the same CEF daily under-recovery process; neither is final.
What the early tracking shows — and why it's moved so much
CEF publishes a daily "under-recovery" figure — effectively a running estimate of how far the current regulated price has fallen behind the real, Brent-crude-and-rand-driven cost of fuel. The DMPR's final adjustment is based on the average of this figure across a roughly month-long review window, not any single day's reading, which is exactly why the number keeps moving as October's trading plays out.
| Fuel Type | Early-Oct reading (~7-9 Oct) | Mid-Oct reading (~12-13 Oct) |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | +R4.29/l | +R2.68/l |
| Petrol 95 | +R4.58/l | +R2.78/l |
| Diesel 0.05% / 500ppm | +R2.56/l | +R1.45/l |
| Diesel 0.005% / 50ppm | +R2.91/l | +R1.59/l |
Why the swing happened
Brent crude has been genuinely volatile through October, trading as high as the mid-$100s a barrel on continued US-Iran tensions, after sitting around $101 when October's own adjustment was confirmed. The rand has also weakened over the same period, reported around R16.48 to the dollar in mid-October tracking — a weaker rand raises the rand-cost of imported fuel regardless of what crude itself does. Both inputs move the daily CEF estimate, and with roughly three weeks still left in November's review window as this article is published, there's genuinely more room for the number to move again before the DMPR's official announcement.
What this means for you
Using the more recent, smaller mid-October estimate as the base case, a 50-litre tank of Petrol 95 would cost roughly R139 more than October's confirmed price. Diesel drivers would see a smaller increase this time around — roughly R73-R80 more per 70-litre tank — a genuine change from earlier in the year, when diesel typically moved more than petrol. If the larger early-October estimate ends up closer to the mark instead, petrol drivers should budget closer to double that figure.
Track record: how reliable are these early projections?
Mixed, and this month is arguably the clearest example yet of why. July's early projections understated the relief motorists eventually got. September's and October's both understated the pain, coming in better (for motorists) than what was eventually confirmed. November's projection has now moved so much within the same month that the two CEF readings above — both genuine, both from the same official process — differ by close to R2/litre on petrol alone. The honest takeaway is less "which number is right" and more that a mid-month projection for this specific fuel grade can still be a rough guide at best until the review window closes.
Frequently asked questions
Figures above are early-month CEF daily under-recovery readings as reported in South African fuel-price coverage through mid-October 2026, not an official CEF mid-month release or DMPR final figure. They can and do move significantly before the official announcement, expected around late October 2026 for prices effective 4 November 2026. Always confirm the final price against the official DMPR announcement or this site's monthly fuel prices page.
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