South Africa's annual consumer price inflation accelerated sharply to 4.5% in May 2026 — its highest level in 22 months — as the cumulative effect of war-driven fuel price increases finally hit household budgets with full force. The reading exceeded the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) preferred upper tolerance band of 4.0% for the first time since July 2024.
The Numbers Don't Lie: Fuel Drove Everything
The scale of the fuel price movement over the past year is striking: petrol prices were up 24.8% year-on-year, while diesel prices surged by 53.8% — both reflecting the sustained disruption to global oil supply caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
The Isolation Test: What Inflation Looks Like Without Fuel
Perhaps the most telling data point: CPI excluding fuel held steady at 3.7% in May — exactly the same as in April. In monthly terms, the contrast is stark: overall CPI rose 0.7% between April and May. CPI excluding fuel rose just 0.2%.
Full CPI Data: April vs May 2026
| Indicator | April 2026 | May 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (y/y) | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| CPI excluding fuel (y/y) | 3.7% | 3.7% |
| Fuel Index (annual change) | — | +28.7% |
| Petrol prices (y/y) | — | +24.8% |
| Diesel prices (y/y) | — | +53.8% |
| Fuel contribution to monthly CPI change | — | +0.6 ppts |
| Monthly CPI change (overall) | — | +0.7% |
| Monthly CPI change (excl. fuel) | — | +0.2% |
Where Inflation Goes From Here
| Period | Nedbank Forecast | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 (actual) | 4.5% y/y | Fuel index +28.7% y/y |
| June 2026 (forecast) | ~4.9% y/y (peak) | R1.43/l petrol hike + final GFL phase-in |
| H2 2026 (forecast) | Gradual decline | US-Iran ceasefire reduces oil pressure |
| Year-end 2026 (forecast) | ~3.0% y/y | Full benefit of lower fuel prices |
| Full-year 2026 average | ~3.6% | Distorted by H1 war-period spike |
Sources: Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) CPI release, May 2026; Patrick Kelly (StatsSA); Annabel Bishop (Investec); Lerato Ntuli (Anchor Capital); Nedbank Economics. Data current as at 18 June 2026.