Early-month tracking from multiple South African fuel-price trackers points to a hike across the board for the September 2026 adjustment, with diesel taking by far the bigger hit. Unlike most of this year's price moves, this one is not primarily a rand story — the rand has actually been fairly resilient through August. It's an oil-price story, and specifically a Middle East risk story.
What the early projections show
Based on tracking data published through mid-to-late August, here's how the projected increase compares against current (August) inland pump and wholesale prices:
| Fuel Type | August Price | Projected Change | Projected September Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol 93 | R25.42/l | +66c/l | ~R26.08/l |
| Petrol 95 | R25.58/l | +77c/l | ~R26.35/l |
| Diesel 0.05% / 500ppm | R26.17/l | +R2.73/l | ~R28.90/l |
| Diesel 0.005% / 50ppm | R26.90/l | +R2.90/l | ~R29.80/l |
Why diesel is taking the bigger hit
Renewed conflict risk around Iran has pushed Brent crude back up toward $92 a barrel in the past two weeks, after a calmer stretch earlier in August. The rand has held up reasonably well through this — it traded around R16.33 to the dollar in early August, having recovered from a three-month low of R16.98 in late July — so currency weakness isn't the driver here.
What is driving it is where the risk sits: renewed shipping and Strait of Hormuz exposure hits distillate fuels — diesel, in particular — harder than petrol, because of how the international product price for each grade is set and how exposed each is to Middle East refining and export capacity. This is the same pattern that played out in August, when diesel gave back most of July's relief while petrol was largely protected by a Slate Levy cut.
What this means for you
For a 50-litre tank of Petrol 95, the projected September increase works out to roughly R38.50 more per fill-up than August. Diesel drivers are looking at a much bigger jump — around R135-R150 more per tank depending on grade, before any further movement in the final week of August.
If you run a diesel bakkie, a delivery fleet, or anything else where diesel is a meaningful monthly cost, this is worth budgeting for now rather than waiting for the official confirmation.
Track record: how reliable are these early projections?
Early-month projections are a useful heads-up, not a guarantee. Ahead of the July 2026 adjustment, mid-month projections actually understated the relief motorists got — the final cut came in cheaper than predicted on every grade. The following month told the opposite story: a ceasefire assumption baked into earlier forecasts collapsed, and diesel reversed hard. See the full July predictions vs. outcome comparison for the detail. The takeaway is the same both times: treat these numbers as a planning signal, not a locked-in price, until the DMPR confirms.
Figures above are early-month projections from South African fuel-price trackers as at 24 August 2026, not an official CEF or DMPR release. They can and do move before the official announcement, expected around 26-28 August 2026 for prices effective 2 September 2026. Always confirm the final price against the official DMPR announcement or this site's monthly fuel prices page.
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